Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1053

   Mesoscale Discussion 1053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0718 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

   Areas affected...central Dakotas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 294...

   Valid 100018Z - 100215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 294 continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential increasing across northern
   portions of WW294 in central North Dakota. Tornado potential may
   increase over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development continues along the cold front
   in the central Dakotas this evening. Mode has favored quick
   transition from supercell to clusters given mean layer shear vectors
   largely parallel to the front. Nonetheless, a few supercells have
   produced hail up to 1.5-3 inches in diameter. 

   Across central North Dakota, radar analysis shows the cluster in
   Ward/Mclean County developing a bowing structure, with winds around
   60-75 kts around 1 kft as viewed from KBIS and KMBX. Winds up to 72
   mph have been reported near Sawyer, ND. The area ahead of this line
   will be a favored region for significant damaging wind (75-80+ mph)
   potential in the short term due to steep low level lapse rates,
   evaporative processes, and fast storm motions with these storms.

   Tornado potential continues and may increase through the evening.
   Initial storms developed in the lower dew point air mass across the
   western Dakotas and are now moving into a region of richer low-level
   moisture. While the mode may not favor maintenance of discrete
   cells, line embedded circulations will pose potential for tornadoes
   through the evening as the low-level jet enhances low level SRH.

   ..Thornton.. 06/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   46880158 47580256 48350337 48830356 49020348 49060308
               48880078 48410000 47439963 46439962 45769983 45060004
               44410020 44070082 43830183 44760183 46880158 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN