Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1053

   Mesoscale Discussion 1053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southern Texas along the Rio Grande

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282049Z - 282215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing along portions of
   southern TX bordering the Rio Grande. It is unclear if the storms
   can move off of the higher terrain and cross the river. Should this
   occur, a severe hail/wind threat may materialize, and either an
   extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345 or the issuance of a new
   WW may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Robust convective development, including supercells, is
   occurring over the higher terrain in northeastern Mexico. These
   storms are currently attempting to move off of the higher terrain,
   preceded by an ambient environment characterized by 2500+ J/kg
   MLCAPE and modestly curved but elongated hodographs with 60+ kts of
   effective bulk shear. Strong easterly surface winds have also been
   noted at observations sites along the Rio Grande, suggesting that
   these storms are benefiting from abundant inflow. As such, an
   appreciable risk for severe hail and wind would accompany these
   storms (including the possibility of one or more instances of 2+
   inch diameter hail or a 65+ kt wind gust). The main question though
   is if these storms can progress off of the higher terrain and cross
   the Rio Grande into TX. Confidence in this scenario is not overly
   high, but convective trends are being monitored for this
   possibility. Should this occur, either an extension of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 345 or the issuance of a new Severe Thunderstorm
   watch would become necessary.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29140092 29560056 29509991 29069958 28449949 28259969
               28160005 28200032 29140092