Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1045

   Mesoscale Discussion 1045
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois...southwestern
   Indiana...western and central Kentucky...middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091742Z - 091915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage and intensity over the
   next several hours. Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat,
   though a couple of tornadoes may also occur. Convective trends are
   being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along multiple diffuse
   heating zones, ahead of a remnant MCV centered over central MO.
   Given broad low-level convergence preceding the MCV, thunderstorm
   coverage may increase through the afternoon. Though mid-level lapse
   rates are expected to remain modest, low to mid 70s F surface
   dewpoints will support strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE).
   Despite poor vertical wind shear, the strong buoyancy may compensate
   to support damaging gusts via wet downbursts originating from
   stronger storm cores. Furthermore, any storms that can take
   advantage of preexisting ambient low-level vertical vorticity from
   the MCV or along surface boundaries may have the potential to
   produce a brief tornado. If greater convective coverage and
   intensity becomes apparent, a WW issuance may be needed.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...
   MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   36838921 37619002 38599034 39169034 39549004 39558946
               39238822 39018726 38808614 38428534 37928480 37328462
               36538471 35788524 35468562 35288638 35478699 36008802
               36398871 36838921 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH