Mesoscale Discussion 1045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Areas affected...portions of far southern Wisconsin into northern IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281802Z - 282130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity
is expected throughout the afternoon. Scattered strong storms may
occasionally produce gusty winds and hail. The severe threat should
remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a gradually deepening CU field
over southern WI/northern IL, which precedes a 500 mb vort max that
is approaching from eastern IA. As the vort max progresses eastward,
the combination of increasing deep-layer ascent and diurnal heating
will support an increase in thunderstorm development through the
afternoon. These storms will develop in an environment characterized
by 7+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, but mediocre deep-layer
effective shear and only around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, storms may
produce a couple instances of strong, gusty winds or hail. While a
few instances of severe hail/wind cannot be ruled out, the severe
threat is expected to remain sparse, and a WW issuance is not
anticipated.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 43369183 43809131 43588965 43098854 42128773 41648764
41328822 41568944 42009061 42459147 43369183