Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1033

   Mesoscale Discussion 1033
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0602 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kansas...and far
   southern Nebraska

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 287...

   Valid 082302Z - 090030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 287 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe storms ongoing within Tornado Watch 287 are likely
   to remain severe this evening with a threat for all hazards.
   Additional development and upscale growth is possible but uncertain.
   Regardless, the threat for severe weather should increase farther
   east this evening. A downstream watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Several robust supercells have matured along the
   frontal boundary this afternoon from southern NE into northern KS
   across Tornado Watch 287. The environment remains hot and extremely
   unstable with dewpoints in the 70s F supporting MLCAPE of 4000-5000
   J/kg. This, along with deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt will continue to
   support a robust severe environment favorable for large to very
   large hail. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are also possible
   with more persistent supercell structures despite modest low-level
   shear.

   Vigorous new storm development over northern KS suggests the
   potential for storm clustering and upscale growth this evening. As
   convective coverage increases, cold pool consolidation may
   eventually favor the development of an organized cluster or bowing
   segment. This would increase the threat for damaging winds as the
   system moves southeastward this evening. The larger buoyancy could
   potentially support some significant gusts and the potential for
   QLCS tornadoes as well.

   While the exact convective evolution is uncertain, the environment
   downstream of WW287 is supportive of a severe weather threat. This
   threat should increase over the next hour or so as storms spread
   eastward. A downstream Watch is likely this evening, though
   uncertainty on the type and timing remains.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 06/08/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40489919 39789635 39449617 38959602 38399621 37979639
               37959703 38319834 38549935 38739975 38979996 39830015
               40489919 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN