Mesoscale Discussion 1029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Areas affected...parts of southwestern into south central Nebraska
and northwestern into north central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 081849Z - 082145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development, including a couple
of evolving supercells, appears increasingly probable by 3-5 PM CDT.
A severe weather watch is likely to be issued at some point, through
timing remains a bit uncertain.
DISCUSSION...In the wake of a subtle, weakening short wave
perturbation, stronger warm advection (based around the 700 mb
level) is focused along the western Nebraska/Kansas state border
vicinity. This is near the northern periphery of a plume of very
warm elevated mixed-layer air, and likely to persist into late
afternoon, based on latest Rapid Refresh output. Associated forcing
for ascent has been supporting thunderstorm development in an arcing
band across the North Platte toward Imperial NE vicinities, but
inflow of air emanating from a seasonably moist low-level
environment to its southeast has not been sufficient to maintain
particularly vigorous convection.
Closer to the state border vicinity, moistening associated with a
gradual veering of low-level flow from a general northeasterly to
east-southeasterly component, coupled with continued insolation,
appears likely to contribute to weakening inhibition for
boundary-layer parcels increasingly characterized by CAPE on the
order of 2000 J/kg. As this occurs, perhaps as early as 20-22Z,
potential for strong to severe thunderstorm development may begin to
more notably increase.
Due to veering of winds with height, deep-layer mean flow is
southerly and rather light, around 10-15 kts, so storms likely will
be initially slow moving. But deep-layer shear appears more than
sufficient for supercells, which should tend to propagate sharply to
the right (southeastward) through late afternoon. These may be
accompanied by potential for very large hail, perhaps some risk for
a tornado, and locally strong downbursts, before activity tends to
grow upscale.
..Kerr/Smith.. 06/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40480001 40349910 39819833 39269894 39500024 40240075
40480001
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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