Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1029

   Mesoscale Discussion 1029
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

   Areas affected...Middle/Lower Rio Grande Valley...South Central
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

   Valid 280400Z - 280500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging gusts continues
   across the Middle Rio Grande Valley/south central Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Outflow-dominant thunderstorm that moved across deep
   south Texas has left rain-cooled air in its wake, with temperatures
   now generally in the 70s. This cooling and resultant convective
   inhibition will likely preclude the development of surface-based
   thunderstorm for the rest of the evening. However, ample mid-level
   moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place over the
   region, supportive of at least some potential for elevated
   thunderstorms. Isolated hail could occur with the strongest of these
   elevated storms.

   Farther north into Webb and Zapata Counties, an interesting
   convective evolution is underway with the storm just across the
   border surging eastward along the outflow from the storms farther
   south. Strong buoyancy and shear remains in place, and large hail
   and strong gusts will be possible with this storm for at least the
   next hour. Some in-situ development has also occurred near LRD amid
   strong low-level moisture convergence. Large hail and strong gusts
   are possible with this storm as well.

   ..Mosier.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27639982 27929959 27739864 26839776 25959791 26249906
               27049953 27639982