Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 992

   Mesoscale Discussion 0992
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0646 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

   Areas affected...southern Nebraska...northern Kansas into western
   Iowa/Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275...

   Valid 052346Z - 060115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW275. Additional storm
   development is underway with an increasing risk for large hail
   damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, evening visible and radar imagery
   showed the initial convection at the confluence of the stationary
   front and surface trough over far southern NE and northern KS had
   dissipated. Additional convective towers were observed rapidly
   deepening along the primary synoptic boundary and a more diffuse
   secondary zone near the NE/KS border. A very unstable air mass is in
   place with SPC mesoanalysis showing upwards of 4000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
   This will support rapid thunderstorm development and
   intensification, preferentially along these two corridors, this
   evening.

   Steep mid-level lapse rates and the large buoyancy should support a
   risk for large hail (some 2+ inch) and damaging winds with a mixed
   mode of supercells and multi cells. While background flow remains
   fairly modest (OAX VAD) consolidating outflow should eventually
   support the development of one or more eastward propagating clusters
   with a risk for damaging winds and hail into parts of MO and IA.

   ..Lyons.. 06/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39719941 40599938 41479846 41659692 41669567 41189480
               40619470 40239470 39899504 39819569 39749696 39689817
               39689892 39719941 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN