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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 992

Mesoscale Discussion 992
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0992
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...Far Southeast MO...Far Southern
   IL...Western/Central KY...Far Southwest IN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 320...

   Valid 262318Z - 270045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues.

   SUMMARY...Open warm sector initiation appears to be underway from
   far southeast Missouri across far southern Illinois into
   western/central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Supercells capable of
   all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, are possible.
   Southern IN and western/central KY will likely need an additional
   Tornado Watch soon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite  has shown increasingly deep
   cumulus within the warm sector well ahead of the main cold front
   from far southwest MO across southern IL into southwest KY and far
   southwest IN. Some radar returns have been recently noted with this
   activity as well, giving increasing confidence that at least
   isolated convective initiation may be realized shortly. 

   A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends across much of this
   region, resulting in notable low-level veering within the VAD
   profiles at PAH and HPX. Ample low-level moisture and strong
   buoyancy exists across the region as well. Mesoanalysis estimates
   STP is currently from 3 to 5, with this high values expected to
   persist and expand northeastward with time. The result is an
   environment that is favorable for supercells capable of all severe
   hazards, including strong tornadoes. Very large hail up to 2.5" in
   diameter is possible as well. Some of this area is within the
   Tornado Watch 230, but those areas to its east including far
   southern IN and western KY will likely need an additional Tornado
   Watch soon.

   ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/26/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38128933 38648795 38618586 36998615 36568934 37308980

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