Mesoscale Discussion 0953 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268... Valid 020439Z - 020645Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268 continues. SUMMARY...A well organized MCS will continue to move into a very unstable airmass across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Although deep-layer shear will weaken across the MCS as it moves east, the degree of instability and organized nature of the MCS will support a continue damaging wind threat across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #268. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a well organized linear MCS moving east-southeast across southern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma this evening, with perhaps a mesoscale convective vortex beginning to organize across Stafford County, KS, near where several measured thunderstorm wind gusts were recorded between 60 and 70 MPH. Father south, a measured 59 MPH wind gust was reported in Woodward County, OK, as the gust front passed. The overall environment along and ahead of the organized MCS remains quite unstable, with an axis of MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg stretching southeast from southern portions of the MCS into southeast Oklahoma. While the thermodynamic environment remains very favorable, the kinematic environment weakens quickly with eastward extent as effective deep-layer shear values quickly drop off from around 30-35 knots across the MCS now to less than 20 knots across eastern portions of the watch. Despite the weakening kinematic environment ahead of the MCS, the organized nature of the MCS and presence of a developing MCV will support the potential for strong, damaging thunderstorm winds on the leading edge of the MCS into the less favorable environment. As such, the threat for damaging wind gusts will continue across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #268. ..Marsh.. 06/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 36669980 37539932 38829912 38329722 37399657 36329745 36669980 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Source link