Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 941

   Mesoscale Discussion 0941
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and
   adjacent portions of southwest Georgia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...264...

   Valid 012146Z - 012345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261, 264
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A loosely organized MCS will likely continue propagating
   southward across southern Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle
   through the evening hours. Downstream watch issuance will be
   considered.

   DISCUSSION...Latest velocity imagery out of central AL continues to
   show pockets of winds approaching 50 knots along the leading edge of
   the surging cold pool/outflow boundary of a southward-propagating
   MCS. Similarly, the KBMX VWP recently sampled 40-50 knot flow within
   the 1-2 km layer with the passage of the MCS. While severe winds
   likely reside just above the surface, recent surface observations
   continue to mostly show gusts between 30-45 mph, which have been
   sufficient for wind damage based on recent storm reports. 

   The surging nature of the outflow suggests some weakening may be
   observed in the next few hours, however, a pocket of MLCAPE of
   around 2500 J/kg is noted downstream of the MCS where pulse
   convection is currently developing. This hints that new convective
   development along the outflow is possible and could maintain some
   degree of MCS intensity into the evening hours. Downstream watch
   issuance is being considered as the MCS approaches the southern edge
   of WW 261 and 264.

   ..Moore.. 06/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30648763 30858810 31268835 31878840 32378821 32708813
               32618761 32638707 32748651 32878601 32998564 33048535
               32958513 30968390 30718413 30548462 30518522 30548604
               30618681 30648763 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN