Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 932

   Mesoscale Discussion 0932
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0402 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

   Areas affected...parts of central/east central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...

   Valid 010902Z - 011100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260
   continues.

   SUMMARY...It is possible that a developing cluster of thunderstorms
   could organize with increasing potential to produce strong wind
   gusts near and west-southwest of the St. Louis Metro through 5-7 AM
   CDT.

   DISCUSSION...New thunderstorm development is underway near the
   Jefferson City vicinity and will continue to merge with stronger
   convection now developing southeast of Columbia.  This is where
   forcing for ascent aided by low-level warm advection has become
   focused, near the nose of a remnant southwesterly nocturnal
   boundary-layer jet, which may continue to veer to a more westerly
   component before weakening after daybreak.  

   Before this occurs, continuing inflow of seasonably moist boundary
   layer air with sizable potential instability (from where it is
   currently maximized across the Lake of the Ozarks through I-44
   corridor) could support substantive further upscale growth, in the
   presence of weak to modest northwesterly shear.  This appears near
   the periphery of stronger inhibition associated with mid-level
   ridging, where the evolution of an organizing cluster with
   increasing potential to produce strong wind gusts might not be out
   of the question, particularly near and to the southwest of Greater
   St. Louis.

   ..Kerr.. 06/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   39099172 38568978 37828998 37829108 38399213 39099172