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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 932

Mesoscale Discussion 932
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0932
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

   Areas affected...south-central and east-central IL...west-central IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241839Z - 242045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Episodic strong to occasionally severe multicells will
   potentially be capable of localized wind damage (50-65 mph) and
   large hail (1.0 to 1.5 inches in diameter).

   DISCUSSION...A seasonably moist/moderate to strongly unstable
   airmass (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) has developed across south-central
   IL extending eastward into west-central IN early this afternoon. 
   The southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerlies (30-40 kt at
   500 mb) is located across the mid MS Valley into the Wabash Valley. 
   Weaker flow is noted in the upper levels (20-30 kt) in the 300-200mb
   layer.  Precipitation seeding and additional outflow/merger
   processes will promote further storm/cold pool aggregation and
   likely a waning risk for severe where convective overturning has
   occurred.  In areas void of storms currently, some risk for
   strong/localized severe may move into those areas over the next few
   hours.  Large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) and strong to
   locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) will be possible with the stronger
   cores and outflow surges.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38638992 39029031 39509050 39789011 39858946 39868856
               40208807 40708772 40908739 41098698 41058665 40888646
               40418645 39528709 38958787 38628911 38638992 

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