Mesoscale Discussion 0916 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026 Areas affected...portions of north-central Nebraska and far south-central South Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 254... Valid 310210Z - 310345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue across Nebraska this evening. Across Northern Nebraska thunderstorm intensity has quickly waned, but isolated damaging winds may occur with the leading edge of the weakening storms. Portions of the linear of storms across central and south-central Nebraska remain favorable for a continued hail/wind threat in the near term. DISCUSSION...A northwest-to-southeast arc of thunderstorms continues to move northeast across much of Nebraska this evening associated with a weak short-wave trough moving through the subtropical jet stream. The thermodynamic environment along this arc of storms remains very unstable with MUCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, with 2000 J/kg remaining well ahead of the line as well. Kinematically, however, the thunderstorms are rapidly advancing out of the stronger deep-layer shear, which is evident by an overall weakening trend along the northern portion of this line. Surging outflow moving east from the weakening northern portion of the line across northern Nebraska intersects northward moving outflow from the southern/eastern portion of the line in the vicinity of Thedford, NE. Here, thunderstorm intensity appears to be conducive for some continued hail/wind threat in the near term. A short-term hail/wind threat may persist between Broken Bow and Ord, NE, where convective outflows have not fully outrun the parent updrafts. Elsewhere, isolated damaging winds along the surging outflow boundaries cannot be ruled out. ..Marsh.. 05/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41069932 41450072 42120170 42650202 43150167 43330082 43149944 42549870 41729846 41109890 41069932 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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