Mesoscale Discussion 0908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Areas affected...Parts of western/central NE into extreme northwest
KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 302051Z - 302245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development is possible from late
afternoon into early evening, before more widespread storms develop
this evening.
DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 18Z LBF sounding) has
resulted in strong destabilization across parts of western/central
NE, with MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Details of
storm development (if any) through late afternoon remain uncertain,
with the strongest ascent associated with an approaching mid/upper
shortwave trough expected to remain northwest of the area in the
short term. However, weakening CINH may result in isolated storm
development across southwest NE late this afternoon, in the vicinity
of a differential heating zone. Development also cannot be ruled out
farther north into the weakly capped environment across central NE.
Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain modest, with some backing
aloft associated with the approaching negative-tilt shortwave
trough. However, backed low-level flow is currently supporting
effective SRH of 150+ m2/s2, with a further increase possible into
early evening. If storms can mature within this environment, the
favorable instability and SRH could result in supercell development,
despite the marginal deep-layer shear. Any sustained supercell could
be accompanied by a tornado and very large hail potential.
Regardless of isolated supercell development through the next 2-3
hours, more widespread storms are expected to develop and/or move
into the region from KS this evening, with an increasingly prominent
severe-wind threat. Eventual watch issuance is likely, though timing
will depend on trends regarding possible initiation through the
remainder of the afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40300192 41910192 42379969 42049907 41549911 41199957
41070002 40300038 39760042 39640079 39710140 39820183
40060198 40300192
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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