Mesoscale Discussion 0896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Areas affected...northern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250... Valid 292223Z - 300030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for wind gusts up to 65 to 75 mph and/or large hail is expected to continue into this evening. DISCUSSION...Initial storm development along a pseudo-dryline/ surface trough has resulted in considerable outflow generation and subsequent thunderstorm development across portions of Major, Alfalfa, and Garfield Counties as of 22:15 UTC. The inflow air mass to these storms is quite moist with boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70, which coupled with steep low/mid-level lapse rates is resulting in MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. The current KVNX VWP is exhibiting veering winds with height, however deep-layer shear is only around 25 kt. While the magnitude of instability will compensate for the marginal vertical shear to some extent, the current parameter space is suggestive of predominantly multi-cell storm modes, with some potential for transient supercell structures. A recent wind gust of 68 mph was reported near Lahoma, OK, and additional severe wind gusts up to 65-75 mph will remain the predominant hazard with the ongoing storms, at least in the short term. Other more cellular convection attempting to organize on the periphery of the main storm complex may eventually pose a large hail threat this evening, especially as low-level shear gradually strengthens and increases the odds of mid-level updraft rotation. ..Mead.. 05/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 36269957 36999943 36979690 36999596 36179597 36159663 35959663 35939711 35709714 35699826 35529832 35519863 35429866 35459937 36269957 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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