Mesoscale Discussion 0884 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026 Areas affected...southwest Idaho into eastern and central Oregon Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248... Valid 282215Z - 290015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248 continues. SUMMARY...The severe-weather threat continues across the watch area. A potentially more focused area of severe storms will impact the Harney Basin in the vicinity of Burns, OR and points west through northwest for the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...As of 22:00 UTC, radar and IR satellite data indicated a cluster of intense storms, including embedded supercell structures, over Harney County, OR in the vicinity of Burns. Storm movement was to the northwest at around 30 kt. Mesoanalysis places that convection along a west-southwest to east-northeast-oriented surface boundary that delineates a drier air mass to the south, and a more moist and unstable environment to the north. The air mass to the north is characterized by steep low to mid-level lapse rates, which are yielding 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amidst a kinematic environment featuring 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. In addition to radar-observed rotation in the mid levels, some of the storms have exhibited forward-propagating characteristics, suggestive of damaging wind potential, in addition to the large hail threat. Elsewhere, convective outflow trailing additional storms across far southwest ID has recently pushed through the Boise area, and may serve as the focus for additional strong to severe storm development. An additional strong thunderstorm over Washington County ID may pose a large hail threat while moving into Baker County OR. ..Mead.. 05/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR... LAT...LON 42011499 41981725 42002085 42712092 42772131 43582131 43632196 45672190 46061786 45941677 45391636 44731617 43871615 42821507 42011499 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Source link