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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 884

Mesoscale Discussion 884
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0884
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1039 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Areas affected...east central Oklahoma into central Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 283...

   Valid 220339Z - 220545Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 283 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorm development persists and
   may continue to spread eastward across and east the Mississippi
   River through 06-07Z.  These may pose a risk for severe hail and
   locally strong gusts.  The potential for tornadoes may now be low
   enough that a new severe weather watch does not appear needed, but
   trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a cold front advancing southeastward across
   the Ozark Plateau, isolated supercell development is being
   maintained near the southern periphery of broad mid-level troughing
   still slowly progressing to the east of the southern Rockies. 
   Forcing for ascent is being aided by weak low-level warm advection
   near the nose of an increasingly suppressed plume of elevated
   mixed-layer air, where steep lapse rates are contributing to CAPE up
   to around 3000 J/kg.  Deep-layer mean flow on the order of 40-50 kt
   remains strongly sheared as it has taken on an increasingly westerly
   component in the wake of the primary short wave trough shifting
   through the Upper Midwest.  It is possible pre-frontal low-level
   moistening and destabilization could support the continued eastward
   spread of ongoing storms into/through portions of the Mid South by

   ..Kerr.. 05/22/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35599490 35449278 35628960 34529050 34549385 34769543

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