Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 884

   Mesoscale Discussion 0884
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1039 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Areas affected...east central Oklahoma into central Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 283...

   Valid 220339Z - 220545Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 283 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorm development persists and
   may continue to spread eastward across and east the Mississippi
   River through 06-07Z.  These may pose a risk for severe hail and
   locally strong gusts.  The potential for tornadoes may now be low
   enough that a new severe weather watch does not appear needed, but
   trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a cold front advancing southeastward across
   the Ozark Plateau, isolated supercell development is being
   maintained near the southern periphery of broad mid-level troughing
   still slowly progressing to the east of the southern Rockies. 
   Forcing for ascent is being aided by weak low-level warm advection
   near the nose of an increasingly suppressed plume of elevated
   mixed-layer air, where steep lapse rates are contributing to CAPE up
   to around 3000 J/kg.  Deep-layer mean flow on the order of 40-50 kt
   remains strongly sheared as it has taken on an increasingly westerly
   component in the wake of the primary short wave trough shifting
   through the Upper Midwest.  It is possible pre-frontal low-level
   moistening and destabilization could support the continued eastward
   spread of ongoing storms into/through portions of the Mid South by
   06-07Z.

   ..Kerr.. 05/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35599490 35449278 35628960 34529050 34549385 34769543
               35599490