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Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of the mid-Missouri Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260013Z - 260145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated developing thunderstorms may bring a risk for
large hail and damaging wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. Watch
issuance is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and GOES lightning
data depict isolated, developing thunderstorms along a weak surface
trough from far northeastern Nebraska into northwestern Iowa.
Temperatures in the upper-80s F and dewpoints in the low-60s are
supporting moderate buoyancy, with 1500 to locally 2500 J/kg MLCAPE
depicted via latest objective analysis. While northwesterly
mid-level flow remains rather weak, 20-30 kts of effective shear is
sufficient to support some organization of more robust updrafts,
with the potential for marginal supercell structures. The primary
threats with these storms will be an isolated risk for large hail
and damaging wind gusts given steep low- and mid-level lapse rates.
The overall severe threat is expected to remain spatially and
temporally limited, with the mostly likely scenario being one or two
strong to severe thunderstorms evolving over the next 1-2 hours
before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to bring a decreasing
severe risk. Given this, watch issuance is unlikely, but trends will
continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42459719 42869719 43509668 44069539 44089445 43949397
43619375 43089385 42679419 42389485 42099560 41889626
41989684 42189711 42459719
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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