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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 859

Mesoscale Discussion 859
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0859
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0825 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

   Areas of southwestern Nebraska and adjacent
   northern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 210125Z - 210300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...An intensifying supercell and perhaps small upscale
   growing convective cluster appears likely to continue developing
   eastward along a frontal zone into portions of southwestern Nebraska
   and adjacent northern Kansas through 10 PM-Midnight CDT.  This will
   be accompanied by increasing potential for large hail, severe wind
   gusts and a few tornadoes.  A new watch likely will be issued within
   the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...More substantive intensification of convection across
   northeastern Colorado is now underway, including one supercell now
   propagating eastward across the Akron CO vicinity.  As activity
   continues eastward, strengthening easterly low-level updraft inflow
   will become increasingly unstable with deeper progression into the
   plains.  This likely will support further upscale growth, including,
   at least initially, an enlarging supercell, then perhaps a gradually
   upscale growing cluster focused along the baroclinic zone (roughly
   centered around 700 mb) extending eastward near/north of the
   Kansas/Nebraska border vicinity.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/21/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40930201 41000060 40679972 39699985 39580095 39680163
               40140214 40930201 

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