Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 851

   Mesoscale Discussion 0851
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0848 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

   Areas affected...southwest Minnesota...southeast South Dakota...far
   northwest Iowa...and northeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243...

   Valid 250148Z - 250315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large-hail potential is expected to become more isolated
   through 04z.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends indicate warming
   cloud tops and lowering reflectivity cores, which coincides with the
   gradual cooling and stabilization of the boundary layer. However,
   plan-view VWP data and short-term model forecasts indicate the
   strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet from south-central NE
   into southeast SD. Enhanced convergence and moist flux within the
   terminus of that feature may support the continuation of isolated,
   strong to severe storms in far southeast SD and northwest IA for the
   next hour or two. Elsewhere, expect a gradual decrease in storm
   coverage and intensity through 04z as convective inhibition
   continues to increase.

   ..Mead.. 05/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41809818 42419827 42979817 43909778 44179729 44589600
               44879541 45119490 45009431 44479358 43969350 43739437
               43609496 43039526 42579571 42049625 41929655 41579738
               41809818 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN