Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 851

   Mesoscale Discussion 0851
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1237 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

   Areas affected...the Michigan Thumb vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201737Z - 201930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms capable of isolated damaging wind
   and hail are possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has recently intensified near the
   Thumb region of Michigan. While low-level moisture is relatively
   limited, strong heating is occurring downstream of this cluster,
   supporting MUCAPE of near or above 1000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is
   rather modest, but unidirectional southwesterly flow may support
   some organization with this cluster as it moves northeastward
   through the afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support
   a threat for strong/damaging outflow gusts, while stronger embedded
   cells may be capable of producing some hail. In addition, isolated
   strong storm development cannot be ruled out later this afternoon to
   the southwest of the ongoing cluster, along a trailing surface
   boundary.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 05/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...

   LAT...LON   43018372 43438380 43808339 43948304 43838268 43328254
               42908247 42848318 42918375 43018372