Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 848

   Mesoscale Discussion 0848
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

   Areas affected...portions of north and central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241939Z - 242245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorms may pose a sporadic risk for
   strong to severe gusts this afternoon and early evening. A WW is
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2035 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery
   showed initial thunderstorm development was underway across portions
   of north TX.  These initial storms have developed along a diffuse
   remnant boundary where low-level confluence has helped to erode
   ambient inhibition faster. Strong heating amid a seasonably moist
   surface air mass (dewpoints 65-70 F) should continue this afternoon,
   which will result in a broadly unstable (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE)
   environment over much of the southern Plains. Additional development
   is likely, both within the warm sector in central TX, and ahead of a
   remnant MCV over western north TX through the next couple of hours.

   While the environment is unstable, vertical shear is very weak
   (generally under 15 kts). This will favor a pulse multicell mode
   with little organization potential. Some CAM solutions suggest
   clustering is possible, which could support sporadic stronger gusts
   with downbursts. Thus, while some severe potential is evident, a WW
   is likely not needed.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31140013 31450006 32669942 33259930 33939827 33319673
               32719599 31929590 31219656 30649714 30459762 30219804
               30069867 30059917 30189983 31140013 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH