Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 835

   Mesoscale Discussion 0835
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0920 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

   Areas affected...Sabine Valley into central Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231420Z - 231615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds are possible with a band of
   convection moving into Louisiana. A brief tornado may also occur
   with cellular convection ahead of the line. A watch is not currently
   expected, though observational trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms in association with an MCV
   continues eastward through the Sabine Valley region this morning.
   Occasional strengthening of convective cores has been noted on MRMS
   CAPPI imagery. As surface heating occurs ahead of this activity,
   isolated wind damage will be possible with the strongest portions of
   the line. In central Louisiana, recent radar data from KPOE shows a
   couple of supercell structures with at least weak low-level
   rotation. Regional VAD profiles do not show very strong low level
   shear, but there is likely some localized enhancement in close
   proximity to the MCV. A brief tornado is possible with cellular
   convection ahead of the MCV/convective line and perhaps within the
   line as well. A watch is not currently anticipated, but convective
   trends will be monitored into the afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   29399341 29599363 30499377 31199454 31649435 32129363
               31599154 31009150 29849264 29599307 29399341 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH