Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 835

   Mesoscale Discussion 0835
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Areas affected...Western NE...Southwest SD...extreme northeast CO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

   Valid 192050Z - 192215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for hail and severe gusts should increase into
   late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
   across the NE Panhandle into northeast CO this afternoon, with some
   increase also recently noted into southwest SD and extreme
   west-central WY. Sufficient deep-layer shear (effective shear of 40+
   kt) and steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to support a hail
   threat with ongoing discrete cells from northeast CO into the NE
   Panhandle, with some additional discrete cell development possible
   into southwest SD. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out with any
   sustained supercell, especially over northeast CO where multiple
   surface boundaries are in place. 

   With time, some clustering of storms will be possible as outflows
   consolidate, leading to an increase in severe-wind potential late
   this afternoon into early evening, especially in areas where
   stronger heating and deeper mixing have occurred this afternoon.

   ..Dean.. 05/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40740324 43990406 44610280 44640193 44230119 43700104
               41790122 41450130 41080139 40730149 40160196 39690332
               40740324