Mesoscale Discussion 0830 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of the southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 240... Valid 222347Z - 230115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 240 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts, large hail, and landspouts continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 240, with a more isolated threat expected across adjacent portions of the southern High Plains. DISCUSSION...Scattered convection is ongoing across portions of the southern High Plains as of 2330 UTC, with several reports of landspouts, severe wind gusts, and large hail (ranging from 1-2.5") noted over the past 1-2 hours. Disorganized outflows are also noted via regional radar imagery within a weak to modestly-sheared environment (effective shear of 20-30 kts per latest objective analysis). Expectation is for convection to gradually congeal along these outflow boundaries into one or more forward-propagating convective clusters with some increase in the threat for damaging/severe wind gusts. Westerly shear vectors will generally favor an easterly motion for any such clusters, but some deviation is possible where additional outflow interactions occur. Large hail also remains possible with any more discrete, robust cells that can be maintained. Enhanced surface vertical vorticity in close proximity to a weak surface cyclone will also promote some continued potential for landspouts, particularly with the cluster noted along and west of I-27 where latest objective analysis depicts a pocket of locally greater low-level buoyancy, though the increasing tendency for outflows should gradually temper this potential. ..Chalmers.. 05/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32840154 33680196 34150255 34290360 34550384 34990393 35240375 35330330 35510199 35460105 35000011 34349960 33809939 33279937 32869959 32540011 32340091 32470122 32840154 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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