Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 822

   Mesoscale Discussion 0822
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0843 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas
   Panhandle vicinity

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

   Valid 220143Z - 220315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe wind gusts remain possible
   another couple of hours with the ongoing cluster of storms. 
   However, sufficient weakening trends already appear underway to
   preclude the issuance of another severe weather watch and allow for
   the expiration of the current watch by 10 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of embedded meso-beta scale circulations have
   evolved and remain evident with the quasi-linear convective system
   propagating through the high plains, which has generated at least a
   narrow cold pool with 3-4 mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises sampled
   at Dalhart in the 01Z surface observations.  However, forward motion
   has remained rather modest, and convective intensities appear to be
   trending downward.  The onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling,
   coupled with continued warming in lower/mid-levels, will lead to
   increasing inhibition through the evening, which is expected to
   maintain weakening convective trends and diminishing severe weather
   potential.

   ..Kerr.. 05/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36040262 36540199 37330165 38060162 38360032 37459989
               35990072 35370195 36040262 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN