Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 822

   Mesoscale Discussion 0822
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern North Dakota...northeastern South
   Dakota...west central/northwestern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255...

   Valid 180437Z - 180600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few locally strong surface gusts remain possible with
   lingering convection spreading across and east of the Red River
   vicinity through 1-2 AM CDT, but the severe weather threat appears
   to have generally diminished.

   DISCUSSION...A convective outflow driven/enhanced cold front has
   advanced east of the the Red River, and southeastward through
   central South Dakota portions of the mid Missouri Valley.  Ahead of
   this boundary, lower/mid-levels remain relatively dry as the
   boundary-layer continues to cool, resulting in diminishing
   instability.  However, mid-level lapse rates are still steep enough
   to maintain sufficient instability to support continuing convective
   development in the presence of strong lift along a 30-50+ kt
   southerly 850 mb jet axis.   While stronger convection is
   increasingly focused to the cool side of the surface front,
   thermodynamic profiles may remain conducive to occasional strong,
   but generally sub-severe, surface gusts in the more vigorous
   lingering convection as it gradually spreads eastward into the
   overnight hours.

   ..Kerr.. 05/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48749430 47809432 46519536 45109688 44979819 45569872
               46719792 48529655 48929584 48749430