Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 813

   Mesoscale Discussion 0813
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of west/southwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211902Z - 212130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible through
   the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A small supercell has recently developed to the
   northeast of Midland. With generally weak deep-layer flow noted in
   regional VWPs, the relative organization of this cell is likely due
   to locally backed winds and enhanced shear/SRH in the vicinity of a
   differential heating/baroclinic zone draped from north to east of
   Midland. This cell and any other cell that can mature within this
   zone may continue to move southeastward along the boundary, with
   moderate MLCAPE supporting a threat of large hail. Localized strong
   to severe gusts may also occur. 

   Additional storms have recently developed near and east/northeast of
   Fort Stockton. Deep-layer shear is weaker in this region compared to
   areas farther north near the boundary, but MLCAPE of near/above 2000
   J/kg will support at least transient robust updrafts, with a threat
   of hail and localized strong to severe gusts.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 05/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32450206 31990082 30969969 30449930 29689954 29550109
               29840251 30160276 30530319 30950339 31310335 31580321
               32020285 32460252 32450206 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN