Mesoscale Discussion 0813
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Areas affected...portions of the northwestern and west-central
Florida coastal area
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 171139Z - 171345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms crossing the northeastern Gulf will affect parts of
coastal northwestern and west-central Florida in the next 1/2 hour
to hour. Gusty winds -- perhaps locally reaching severe levels over
coastal counties -- can be expected. However, the isolated and
limited areal extent of this risk should preclude the need for WW
issuance.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived bowing MCS moving east at around 50 kt
across the northern Gulf is now nearing portions of northwestern
Florida. While an amply unstable airmass over the Gulf has
sustained well-organized storms, the inland airmass across the
northern and central Florida remains stable to a surface-based
parcel. As such, expect storms to become elevated atop the
low-level stable layer with time, once moving inland.
With that said, given the organized nature of the bow, and attendant
cold pool, strong/gusty winds may locally reach severe levels as
storms first enter coastal counties, starting in the next half hour
or so over Levy County, and then into Citrus, Hernando, and Pasco
Counties thereafter. With that said, given the very limited areal
extent of this threat that is currently anticipated, WW issuance is
not expected.
..Goss/Edwards.. 05/17/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29148343 29538357 29548322 29418273 28978246 28538249
28158274 28178325 28588332 29148343