US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 813

   Mesoscale Discussion 0813
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

   Areas affected...portions of the northwestern and west-central
   Florida coastal area

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171139Z - 171345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms crossing the northeastern Gulf will affect parts of
   coastal northwestern and west-central Florida in the next 1/2 hour
   to hour.  Gusty winds -- perhaps locally reaching severe levels over
   coastal counties -- can be expected.  However, the isolated and
   limited areal extent of this risk should preclude the need for WW

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived bowing MCS moving east at around 50 kt
   across the northern Gulf is now nearing portions of northwestern
   Florida.  While an amply unstable airmass over the Gulf has
   sustained well-organized storms, the inland airmass across the
   northern and central Florida remains stable to a surface-based
   parcel.  As such, expect storms to become elevated atop the
   low-level stable layer with time, once moving inland.

   With that said, given the organized nature of the bow, and attendant
   cold pool, strong/gusty winds may locally reach severe levels as
   storms first enter coastal counties, starting in the next half hour
   or so over Levy County, and then into Citrus, Hernando, and Pasco
   Counties thereafter.  With that said, given the very limited areal
   extent of this threat that is currently anticipated, WW issuance is
   not expected.

   ..Goss/Edwards.. 05/17/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29148343 29538357 29548322 29418273 28978246 28538249
               28158274 28178325 28588332 29148343 

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