Mesoscale Discussion 0806
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the TX Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 201953Z - 202200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms with a threat of large hail and localized
severe gusts may develop later this afternoon into the early
evening.
DISCUSSION...A large area of primarily elevated and disorganized
convection is ongoing this afternoon from near Lubbock to Midland to
west of Del Rio. Moderate MUCAPE and marginally favorable deep-layer
shear could support occasional intensification of these elevated
storms, with a threat for isolated hail.
Farther west, storms are gradually increasing in the vicinity of the
Davis Mountains, with a continued increase in coverage possible as a
low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough approaches the region from
northern Mexico. Stronger heating has occurred in this area,
along/south of a baroclinic zone, and convection in this area could
evolve into more organized surface-based storms, with sufficient
deep-layer shear for supercell development. Moderate to locally
strong buoyancy and steep midlevel lapse rates will support
potential for large to very large hail, if any surface-based
supercells can evolve with time. Localized severe gusts will also be
possible, especially in areas along/south of the front, where
steeper low-level lapse rates are in place.
Coverage of severe storms later this afternoon into the early
evening remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if
development of multiple sustained severe storms appears imminent.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29770462 31010408 31810334 31930206 31870141 31750124
30650096 30220090 29760124 29390228 29260247 29090270
28880311 28830346 29160435 29770462
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Source link