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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 806

Mesoscale Discussion 806
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0806
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast TX...Southern LA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 249...

   Valid 162156Z - 162330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 249 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually spread southeast across ww249
   this evening. Damaging squall line may ultimately evolve over the
   next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Expansive MCS has evolved over much of central/east TX
   late this afternoon. Leading edge of this activity exhibits numerous
   robust updrafts, extending from ACP-JAS-CLL-3T5. MESH data suggests
   marginally severe hail is likely observed with the strongest cores,
   but convective outflow is likely undercutting much of this activity.
   As the cold pool continues to expand, there is reason to believe one
   or more bow-type surges could evolve then propagate across the upper
   TX Coastal Plain toward the lower Sabine River Valley. Latest radar
   data suggests a developing bow is beginning to accelerate into the
   northwestern portions of ww249. This squall line may grow upscale
   and become more efficient in producing damaging winds as it
   progresses across a very warm/moist air mass immediately downstream.

   ..Darrow.. 05/16/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30969684 30969189 29389189 29369683 30969684 

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