Mesoscale Discussion 0790
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Areas affected...Northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191954Z - 192200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind may continue through
late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...While convection remains generally disorganized, a
southeastward outflow surge has recently been noted in the ArkLaTex
vicinity, with a 44 kt gust recently observed at Texarkana. Some
heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates has occurred
downstream of this outflow surge, and continued updraft development
along the outflow is expected through late afternoon, as it moves
through a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment.
The 18Z SHV sounding continues to depict weak deep-layer shear, and
some weakening of low-level flow has been noted in the SHV VWP. As a
result, the ongoing storm cluster is expected to remain relatively
disorganized. However, given the presence of a well-defined outflow
moving through a warm and moist environment, at least localized
instances of damaging wind will be possible through late afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34359320 34349223 34199185 33859166 32939180 32599192
32279216 32039251 31849327 31879395 32039440 32409464
32869476 33089473 33209430 33859363 34359320
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Source link