Mesoscale Discussion 0790 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central/north FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 243... Valid 151236Z - 151400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 243 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two, hail, and damaging wind will persist through the morning. New watch issuance is possible after WW 243 expires. DISCUSSION...A notable uptick in storm coverage is ongoing this morning across central FL. Most convection remains focused near a weak surface boundary draped from near/north of Tampa to south of Daytona Beach, but storm initiation is also underway south of this corridor. The 10Z XMR and 12Z TBW soundings depict a very moist and unstable environment, with dewpoints in the upper 70s F and MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg. Pockets of diurnal heating will support some additional destabilization and a potential increase in storm intensity through the morning. Moderate deep-layer shear within unidirectional southwesterly flow aloft will support organized convection, including the potential for a few supercells. Low-level shear/SRH is rather modest due to generally veered surface winds, but any longer-lived supercell within this very moist/unstable environment could pose some tornado threat. Otherwise, a threat for large hail and locally damaging wind will accompany the strongest storms. While ongoing storms are largely confined to central FL, some increase in storm coverage has been noted over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, and additional development into north FL remains possible later this morning. With the severe threat expected to persist beyond the 15Z expiration time of WW 243, new watch issuance is possible later this morning. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 26978276 27238337 29308368 29658305 30008086 29138022 28248022 27578065 27128169 27018218 26978276