US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 790

   Mesoscale Discussion 0790
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0736 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of central/north FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 243...

   Valid 151236Z - 151400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 243 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two, hail, and damaging wind
   will persist through the morning. New watch issuance is possible
   after WW 243 expires.

   DISCUSSION...A notable uptick in storm coverage is ongoing this
   morning across central FL. Most convection remains focused near a
   weak surface boundary draped from near/north of Tampa to south of
   Daytona Beach, but storm initiation is also underway south of this
   corridor. The 10Z XMR and 12Z TBW soundings depict a very moist and
   unstable environment, with dewpoints in the upper 70s F and MLCAPE
   near or above 2500 J/kg. Pockets of diurnal heating will support
   some additional destabilization and a potential increase in storm
   intensity through the morning. 

   Moderate deep-layer shear within unidirectional southwesterly flow
   aloft will support organized convection, including the potential for
   a few supercells. Low-level shear/SRH is rather modest due to
   generally veered surface winds, but any longer-lived supercell
   within this very moist/unstable environment could pose some tornado
   threat. Otherwise, a threat for large hail and locally damaging wind
   will accompany the strongest storms.  

   While ongoing storms are largely confined to central FL, some
   increase in storm coverage has been noted over the northeast Gulf of
   Mexico, and additional development into north FL remains possible
   later this morning. With the severe threat expected to persist
   beyond the 15Z expiration time of WW 243, new watch issuance is
   possible later this morning.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/15/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   26978276 27238337 29308368 29658305 30008086 29138022
               28248022 27578065 27128169 27018218 26978276 

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