Mesoscale Discussion 0788
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Areas affected...Parts of southwest into central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 191833Z - 192100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected by
late afternoon, with a threat of large to very large hail and
localized severe gusts. Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms recently intensified near and
northeast of San Angelo, as a cold front intercepted a region of
locally enhanced low-level moisture that is streaming northward.
Golf-ball sized hail was recently reported with this cluster.
Deep-layer shear remains relatively weak, and there will be a
tendency for storms to be undercut by the front, but strong buoyancy
(MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) will continue to support a threat of
isolated hail and localized severe gusts in the short term. Other
storms may intensify with time to the southwest of the Metroplex.
Farther southwest, the surface boundary will continue to move
southward across parts of the Edwards Plateau and Permian Basin. The
colder and more stable airmass is expected to remain well northeast
of this region, with relatively strong heating and destabilization
possible immediately behind the boundary in this area by late
afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered storm development
expected. While mid/upper-level flow will remain modest, backed flow
to the north of the boundary will allow for effective shear of 30-40
kt, sufficient for more organized convection and possible
supercells. Large to very large hail will be possible with any
sustained supercells, though localized severe gusts and a brief
tornado will also be possible.
Watch issuance is possible later this afternoon across the region,
with timing dependent on the evolution of ongoing storms and trends
regarding initiation into a larger portion of southwest TX.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31200211 31280177 31790019 32149872 32389815 32749755
32319693 31399747 30829800 30169865 29809983 29760098
29760143 29780196 29700283 30070290 30820267 31200211
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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