Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 775

   Mesoscale Discussion 0775
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

   Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into Southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 181931Z - 182130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will
   be possible this afternoon. The degree of tornado/very-large hail
   threat will depend on a discrete storm mode. A watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus are increasing in the vicinity of
   Dodge City as convergence along a cold front has increased over the
   past couple of hours. With 40+ kt of effective shear and observed
   7.9 C/km mid-level lapse rate on the 18Z DDC sounding, initial
   supercells capable of very-large hail and severe winds can be
   expected. Tornadoes will also be possible where discrete modes can
   be maintained longer given the low-level shear. However, the linear
   forcing from the cold front may be enough to encourage a quick
   transition to a more linear mode. Regardless of the exact evolution,
   all severe hazards will be possible. A watch will likely be needed
   this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36499920 36489977 36590009 36800021 37240015 37729977
               37999955 38189903 38149863 37889833 37319824 36819839
               36499920 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN