Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 771

   Mesoscale Discussion 0771
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1159 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

   Areas affected...South-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and
   northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 181659Z - 181900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A favorable environment for all severe hazards--including
   very-large/giant hail and strong to intense tornadoes--will develop
   through the afternoon. A tornado watch is likely this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus along the cold front in central Kansas as well
   as near the outflow/front triple point continue to show signs of
   gradual deepening. Given the upper 60s/low 70s F dewpoints surging
   northward into central Kansas, MLCIN should continue to erode
   relatively quickly. Storm initiation could be early/mid afternoon.
   Outflow from earlier convection is also being modified in northeast
   Kansas. Here, surface winds will be more backed. The KTWX VAD
   profile shows strong low-level veering. Deep-layer shear and steep
   low/mid-level lapse rates will support supercells capable of severe
   winds, very-large to perhaps giant hail, and tornadoes. The
   favorable low-level wind fields in place suggests strong to intense
   tornadoes are possible. The areas of greatest concern for this
   activity will be storms forming near the triple point and moving
   northeast along the quasi-stationary/warm front. There is also
   potential for a supercell or two to develop along the modifying
   outflow boundary. A longer-track tornado is certainly possible if
   storms can maintain a discrete mode. With time, however, there is
   the expectation for upscale growth into an MCS where severe winds
   would become a greater concern.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37509764 37559817 37919865 38349881 38689867 39609784
               39769764 40089644 40299547 40079515 39459540 38189641
               37509764 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN