Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 742

   Mesoscale Discussion 0742
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0836 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

   Areas affected...far southeast Nebraska toward far northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211...

   Valid 170136Z - 170330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out as cells interact with
   the wind shift/outflow.

   DISCUSSION...Several cells are currently ongoing from Washington
   County KS to just south of Lincoln, NE, and these are within the
   instability axis where MLCAPE is over 3000 J/kg. Surface analysis
   also shows an outflow boundary just north of these cells and
   extending into northwest MO, with a more subtle wind shift with
   northeast winds from just northwest of these cells into northern KS.

   Area VWPs show the increasing low-level jet with around 35 kt out of
   the south at Topeka. Given the increased shear with effective SRH
   now over 200 m2/s2, a brief period in time and space may exist for a
   brief tornado before these cells are undercut by the outflow.

   ..Jewell.. 05/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40069787 40469718 40769678 40729615 40369608 39949640
               39739717 39749761 39929787 40069787 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN