Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 734

   Mesoscale Discussion 0734
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

   Areas affected...southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 207...

   Valid 160529Z - 160700Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 207
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will persist for one to 2 more
   hours across southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois.

   DISCUSSION...A small bowing segment persists across southern
   Wisconsin where a recent 61 mph measured wind gust was recorded by a
   trained spotter and a 72 mph wind gust was measured by a home
   weather station. This bow will move into a increasingly stable
   airmass as it continues east where low to mid 50s dewpoints are
   present. Despite the weakening instability, some damaging wind
   threat could persist to the Lake Michigan shore given the 50 knot
   southwesterly low-level jet on the MKX VWP. 

   Despite strong low-level directional and speed shear, expect the
   tornado threat to remain low given the 250-350 J/kg MLCIN (per SPC
   mesoanalysis and HRRR forecast soundings ahead of the bow).

   ..Bentley.. 05/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   42399049 42529033 42729026 43049023 43259006 43308970
               43348879 43238805 42988784 42428791 42278845 42348985
               42399049 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH