US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 734

Mesoscale Discussion

   Mesoscale Discussion 0734
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0439 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

   Areas affected...northeastern Mississippi into a large portion of

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 092139Z - 092315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective initiation is ongoing across northern Alabama,
   and will likely expand over the next 1 to 2 hours.  New WW will
   likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a developing
   convective tower near Birmingham, near the intersection of a weak
   west-to-east baroclinic zone, and an outflow boundary from prior
   convection that extends southward/south-southeastward into
   southeastern Alabama.  While large-scale ascent appears to be weak,
   an otherwise volatile environment is in place, with mixed-layer CAPE
   averaging 3000 to 4000 J/kg on the warm side of these boundaries,
   and strong mid-level westerly flow (in excess of 60 kt at mid
   levels).  Should additional convection evolve -- as appears likely
   per the character of the cu field -- substantial severe-weather risk
   would accompany the storms.  This would include potential for
   strong/damaging winds and very large hail.  Some tornado risk could
   also evolve locally, given the presence of the aforementioned
   boundaries, though low-level flow/shear appears limited at this

   ..Goss/Hart.. 05/09/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33578965 34068948 34108732 33468603 31848469 31578538
               32008709 32768819 32928935 33578965 

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