Mesoscale Discussion 0734
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024
Areas affected...northeastern Mississippi into a large portion of
Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 092139Z - 092315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Convective initiation is ongoing across northern Alabama,
and will likely expand over the next 1 to 2 hours. New WW will
likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a developing
convective tower near Birmingham, near the intersection of a weak
west-to-east baroclinic zone, and an outflow boundary from prior
convection that extends southward/south-southeastward into
southeastern Alabama. While large-scale ascent appears to be weak,
an otherwise volatile environment is in place, with mixed-layer CAPE
averaging 3000 to 4000 J/kg on the warm side of these boundaries,
and strong mid-level westerly flow (in excess of 60 kt at mid
levels). Should additional convection evolve -- as appears likely
per the character of the cu field -- substantial severe-weather risk
would accompany the storms. This would include potential for
strong/damaging winds and very large hail. Some tornado risk could
also evolve locally, given the presence of the aforementioned
boundaries, though low-level flow/shear appears limited at this
time.
..Goss/Hart.. 05/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33578965 34068948 34108732 33468603 31848469 31578538
32008709 32768819 32928935 33578965