Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 733

   Mesoscale Discussion 0733
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1053 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Nebraska into central and northeast Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...

   Valid 160353Z - 160600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Through 05:00 UTC (12:00 AM CDT), the greatest threat for
   strong to severe wind gusts (up to 70 mph) will exist east of I-35
   in northeast Iowa.

   DISCUSSION...Recent trends in mosaic radar data indicate an evolving
   QLCS extending from a bookend vortex and adjacent, small-scale bow
   nearing the MS River in far northeast IA south-southwest to a couple
   of additional bowing structures near Oelwein and west of Waterloo.
   The greatest damaging wind potential (gusts up to 70 mph possible)
   will exist with those structures as they continue east at 35-40 kt,
   and eventually move into the recently issued Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 207.

   Elsewhere, more sporadic occurrences of marginally severe hail
   and/or locally strong wind gusts will be possible along the cold
   front from near Omaha northeast to south and southeast of Fort
   Dodge. Surface observations indicate a pocket of drier air in place
   across western IA, which is an artifact from earlier convection. The
   drier air coupled with a gradually cooling boundary-layer are
   expected to limit overall storm intensity across the western half of
   the watch area.

   ..Mead.. 05/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40299727 41079718 41649657 42199550 42459501 42609429
               43039337 43429260 43459168 43129129 42809132 42659206
               42279226 41719238 41269250 40989257 40629479 40299727 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN