Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 727

   Mesoscale Discussion 0727
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0601 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204...

   Valid 152301Z - 160030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe gusts will remain a concern through the afternoon
   and evening hours.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of high-based thunderstorms, with a history of
   isolated measured severe (50+ kt) convective gusts, continues to
   progress eastward across western TX, amid a deeply mixed, unstable
   boundary layer. Congealing outflows have been noted via KLBB
   reflectivity data across the TX Panhandle, where blowing dust with
   zero visibility have also been reported. Scattered high-based cells
   will continue to develop along this outflow, and with more robust CU
   closer to the TX Rolling Plains over the next couple of hours. As
   long as the deep and mixed boundary layer remains in place, any of
   the stronger storm cores in this environment may support erratic
   strong to severe gusts.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30460305 34240296 34600265 34690163 34530070 34140039
               33410034 32050060 31040089 30490149 30200206 30230265
               30460305 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH