Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 642

   Mesoscale Discussion 0642
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0853 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

   Areas affected...central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 050153Z - 050400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...One or more clusters of strong to severe storms may
   develop this evening and spread eastward with a risk of damaging
   winds and hail. A WW is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Across portions of the central Plains, evening RADAR
   and surface observations showed high-based convection and outflow
   moving eastward across central KS. Most of this activity initiated
   several hours ago in much drier air west of the primary dryline and
   cold front over central KS. Likely tied to a subtle mid-level
   trough, this activity is beginning to encroach on the western
   fringes of the relatively better surface moisture near I-35. While
   dewpoints are not overly robust (50s F), steep mid-level lapse rates
   were supporting 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Additional ascent from the
   shortwave and an increasing nocturnal low-level jet (evident on VADs
   farther south) may support an increase in storm coverage over the
   next few hours. 

   Lightning has increased on several weak updrafts over the last hour.
   Current expectations are for the weaker updrafts currently ongoing
   to gradually intensify, with additional storm development taking
   place in proximity to associated outflow as convection moves into
   the more unstable air mass. This should favor upscale growth into
   one or more clusters with time. Steep lapse rates and 25-40 kt of
   deep-layer shear could support an organized cluster capable of hail
   initially, but with an increased risk of damaging gusts with time.
   Given the potential for increasing severe potential, a WW is being
   considered, though the exact timing remains unclear. Convective
   trends will be monitored over the coming hours for potential watch
   issuance.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37649868 39199846 39689611 39539444 38969368 38519358
               38069359 37479386 37119414 36889465 36839547 36809639
               36829706 36849760 36899811 36939835 37649868 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN