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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 642

Mesoscale Discussion 642
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0642
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024

   Areas affected...South TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...

   Valid 052009Z - 052115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186

   SUMMARY...A couple of supercells embedded within a slow,
   southeast-moving cluster will largely impact the southwest portion
   of WW 186 through 6 PM CDT. Additional severe storm development will
   be possible elsewhere, but appears to be trending towards lower
   probabilities of occurrence.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of deep convective updrafts with echo tops of
   50-55k ft are slowly moving southeastward at around 15 kts. These
   cells appear to have connected outflow and will likely continue
   their slow progression over the next couple hours. The environment
   ahead of them contains appreciable buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500
   J/kg, supporting a potential increase in intensity through late
   afternoon with a mix of large hail to around golf ball size and wind
   gusts of 55-70 mph possible. With greater MLCIN over Deep South TX,
   in conjunction with increasing mid-level warming in the wake of a
   southern-stream low-amplitude shortwave impulse, the severe threat
   should decrease during the early evening.

   Farther north and northeast, convection has largely struggled to
   intensify along residual outflows where the boundary layer has been
   relatively cooler. 18Z HRRR guidance suggests this activity may not
   greatly intensify, and the overall severe threat appears marginal.

   ..Grams.. 05/05/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   28709880 28129798 27699780 27349806 27239859 27259913
               27919958 28249965 28429966 28709880 

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