Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 315

   Mesoscale Discussion 0315
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

   Areas affected...Lower Hudson Valley into northwest Connecticut and
   western Massachusetts

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 84...

   Valid 010056Z - 010230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 84
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms will spread
   across the lower Hudson Valley into northwest CT and western MA over
   the next few hours. Gusty winds are the primary concern.

   DISCUSSION...Weak buoyancy has yet to be overturned across the lower
   Hudson Valley into western portions of southern New England where
   surface temperatures are holding in the lower 70s. Leading edge of
   long-lived complex of storms is spreading across this region but
   this activity appears to be slowly weakening as it advances
   downstream. Latest surface analysis depicts a sharp front is draped
   across RI into central MA where easterly low-level flow is
   maintaining surface temperatures in the 40s. Current thinking is a
   narrow corridor exists for robust convection over the next few hours
   and this activity will pose mostly a gusty wind risk.

   ..Darrow.. 04/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42037497 42717302 42307247 41627375 42037497 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN