Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 315

   Mesoscale Discussion 0315
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0958 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...East Texas...Northwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 77...

   Valid 310258Z - 310500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 77
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for several more
   hours across parts of east Texas. Northwest Louisiana will likely be
   affected. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. A
   local watch extension may become necessary.

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from
   Shreveport shows a severe convective cluster of east Texas. The
   cluster is located within a moderately unstable airmass, where the
   RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The
   convection is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough,
   which is evident on water vapory over east Texas. The latest
   Shreveport WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with
   directional shear in the lowest 2 Km AGL. In addition, RAP forecast
   soundings in far east Texas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
   This will support supercell development, with large hail potential.
   Supercells will also be capable of producing isolated damaging wind
   gusts. The latest short-term model forecasts increase convective
   coverage over east Texas, and move the developing cluster into
   western Louisiana. This will likely be in association with warm air
   advection. For this reason, the severe threat is expected to
   continue into the overnight period.

   ..Broyles.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32699415 32659488 32449535 32259552 32049559 31739559
               31489548 31259516 31159473 31119395 31219311 31419274
               31729257 32089255 32359266 32549302 32689357 32699415 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN