Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 310

   Mesoscale Discussion 0310
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

   Areas affected...northern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80...

   Valid 312022Z - 312215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief
   tornado or two,  is likely to increase as an evolving cluster of
   storms overspreads much of the Greater Cleveland area by 5-6 PM EDT.

   DISCUSSION...An evolving cluster of thunderstorms continues to
   slowly intensify and organize.  Though not yet well-defined, an
   associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation appears to be
   evolving, near/east of Toledo, with further intensification still
   possible, as convection maintains east/southeasterly inflow of
   unstable air characterized by mixed-layer CAPE up to 1000 J/kg for
   at least another few hours.  Embedded within 40+ kt westerly
   deep-layer mean flow it appears that the convective system will
   overspread much of the Greater Cleveland area by 21-22Z, accompanied
   by potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or
   two.

   ..Kerr.. 03/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41658283 41728168 42048053 41507995 41038131 40938306
               41338312 41658283 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH