Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 310

   Mesoscale Discussion 0310
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75...

   Valid 302312Z - 310045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A northeastward-moving MCS will continue to pose a
   severe-wind and embedded/brief tornado risk across southeastern
   Lower Michigan.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS with an established 70+ kt rear inflow
   jet and embedded mesovorticies is tracking northeastward across
   southeastern Lower Michigan at around 50 kt. The DTX VWP indicates
   40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented perpendicular to the gust front,
   which should support continued maintenance of this system. As the
   strong cold pool continues tracking into lower 60s F dewpoints,
   around 70 mph wind gusts will remain possible. However, locally
   stronger gusts up to 80 mph (and a brief tornado) are possible with
   any line-embedded mesovorticies and in the vicinity of the
   established rear-inflow jet.

   ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42088361 42708388 43378452 43608480 43878472 44128405
               44108279 43918257 43008231 41968288 41868329 42088361 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN