Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 286

   Mesoscale Discussion 0286
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

   Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley into northern Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72...

   Valid 222236Z - 230030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind potential will
   continue at least into early evening. Storms moving east will likely
   weaken with time. The strongest storms are more probable along the
   cold front moving south.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered convection continues within WW 72 late this
   afternoon. The strongest storms are currently located in
   southeastern Ohio where steeper low/mid-level lapse rates exist.
   Anafrontal convection also is occurring in central Pennsylvania and
   is moving eastward. These storms have shown a general weakening
   trend as they move into a cooler, less unstable airmass. Additional
   storms may form along/behind the front as very subtle forcing for
   ascent approaches the region.

   Regional VAD data shows strong deep-layer shear with a relatively
   straight hodograph. The strongest storms will split as is currently
   occurring in southeast Ohio/northern West Virginia Panhandle.
   Mid-level lapse rates remain steep enough for isolated large hail.
   Low-level lapse rates are still steep in far southern Pennsylvania
   into adjacent West Virginia/Maryland. There, wind damage will remain
   possible into early evening.

   Environmentally speaking, a downstream watch to the east appears
   unlikely this evening. Local extensions could occur along the
   southern flank should strong/severe convection persist.

   ..Wendt.. 03/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   39347860 39218052 39368112 39758200 39998213 40228206
               40868126 41228070 41467982 41417884 41247809 40557626
               39857618 39527709 39347860 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN