Mesoscale Discussion 0286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025
Areas affected...Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 292340Z - 300215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat, with a potential for large hail, severe
wind gusts, and tornadoes, is expected to develop across parts of
Oklahoma and southeast Kansas over the next couple of hours. Weather
watch issuance will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a low in far
southwestern Oklahoma, with a cold front located in western and
northern Oklahoma. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is present
with surface dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s F. Over the last
hour, low-level convergence has markedly increased along the front.
In addition, a shortwave is analyzed by the RAP over the southern
High Plains. As this feature approaches early this evening,
large-scale ascent will increase. This, along with the increasing
low-level convergence, will provide support for thunderstorm
development along the front from western Oklahoma into south-central
and southeastern Kansas. Convective initiation is likely between 00Z
and 01Z, with coverage gradually expanding across the moist airmass
in central Oklahoma. Within this corridor, RAP forecast soundings
early this evening have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around
40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will be
favorable for supercells with large hail. The more intense
supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter, with the hail threat maximized from western Oklahoma into
north-central Oklahoma. Organized storms will also likely have a
wind-damage threat. As the supercells move eastward into a
developing low-level jet later this evening, a tornado threat will
also be likely.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36649837 35529932 34889954 34439942 34189886 34139824
34469758 35989669 36429620 37079548 37509489 37889456
38379470 38689534 38069679 37379764 36649837
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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